FTAI Aviation Ltd. Just Recorded A 45% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
It's been a good week for FTAI Aviation Ltd. (NASDAQ:FTAI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 6.1% to US$56.64. Revenues were US$1.2b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$2.11, an impressive 45% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for FTAI Aviation
Following the latest results, FTAI Aviation's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.35b in 2024. This would be a decent 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$2.09, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.25b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.15 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a decent to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.
Curiously, the consensus price target rose 26% to US$62.64. We can only conclude that the forecast revenue growth is expected to offset the impact of the expected fall in earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic FTAI Aviation analyst has a price target of US$71.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$45.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that FTAI Aviation's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while FTAI Aviation's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for FTAI Aviation. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for FTAI Aviation going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with FTAI Aviation (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
