The Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (NYSE:GBTG) Yearly Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Shareholders might have noticed that Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (NYSE:GBTG) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.0% to US$5.62 in the past week. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$2.3b were in line with expectations,Global Business Travel Group lost US$0.25 a share in the process. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Global Business Travel Group
After the latest results, the five analysts covering Global Business Travel Group are now predicting revenues of US$2.50b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 9.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Global Business Travel Group forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.062 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.14 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$8.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Global Business Travel Group analyst has a price target of US$9.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Global Business Travel Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.4% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 9.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Global Business Travel Group is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Global Business Travel Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Global Business Travel Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Global Business Travel Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
