Grafton Group plc's (LON:GFTU) Fundamentals Look Pretty Strong: Could The Market Be Wrong About The Stock?
Grafton Group (LON:GFTU) has had a rough month with its share price down 15%. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study Grafton Group's ROE in this article.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
Check out our latest analysis for Grafton Group
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Grafton Group is:
10% = UK£174m ÷ UK£1.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every £1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn £0.10 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
A Side By Side comparison of Grafton Group's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE
To start with, Grafton Group's ROE looks acceptable. Even so, when compared with the average industry ROE of 15%, we aren't very excited. However, the moderate 10% net income growth seen by Grafton Group over the past five years is definitely a positive. Therefore, the growth in earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place. However, not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So this also does lend some color to the fairly high earnings growth seen by the company.
We then compared Grafton Group's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 14% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is GFTU worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether GFTU is currently mispriced by the market.
Is Grafton Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Grafton Group has a three-year median payout ratio of 36%, which implies that it retains the remaining 64% of its profits. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the decent growth seen by the company, it looks like management is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.
Moreover, Grafton Group is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 46% over the next three years. Regardless, the ROE is not expected to change much for the company despite the higher expected payout ratio.
Summary
On the whole, we do feel that Grafton Group has some positive attributes. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a respectable rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see a good amount of growth in its earnings. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
