Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK) Full-Year Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.5% to US$54.61 in the week after its latest annual results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.8b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.2% to hit US$6.14 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Green Brick Partners
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Green Brick Partners are now predicting revenues of US$1.95b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.3% to US$6.92. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.05 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$52.00, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Green Brick Partners, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$55.00 and the most bearish at US$49.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Green Brick Partners' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 23% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Green Brick Partners is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Green Brick Partners going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Green Brick Partners you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
