GUD Holdings Limited (ASX:GUD) Half-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Shareholders might have noticed that GUD Holdings Limited (ASX:GUD) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to AU$11.07 in the past week. Revenues came in 2.5% below expectations, at AU$493m. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of AU$0.69 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for GUD Holdings
After the latest results, the consensus from GUD Holdings' ten analysts is for revenues of AU$993.5m in 2024, which would reflect a perceptible 7.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 7.5% to AU$0.70 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$989.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.77 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$13.10, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on GUD Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$15.15 and the most bearish at AU$11.28 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that GUD Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 15% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 23% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.7% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - GUD Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for GUD Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for GUD Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for GUD Holdings that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
