The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (NYSE:THG) Is Up But Financials Look Inconsistent: Which Way Is The Stock Headed?
Hanover Insurance Group's (NYSE:THG) stock up by 7.2% over the past three months. However, we decided to study the company's mixed-bag of fundamentals to assess what this could mean for future share prices, as stock prices tend to be aligned with a company's long-term financial performance. Specifically, we decided to study Hanover Insurance Group's ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.
Check out our latest analysis for Hanover Insurance Group
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Hanover Insurance Group is:
1.4% = US$34m ÷ US$2.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.01 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Hanover Insurance Group's Earnings Growth And 1.4% ROE
As you can see, Hanover Insurance Group's ROE looks pretty weak. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 13%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. For this reason, Hanover Insurance Group's five year net income decline of 22% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.
However, when we compared Hanover Insurance Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 8.2% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Hanover Insurance Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Hanover Insurance Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
When we piece together Hanover Insurance Group's low three-year median payout ratio of 24% (where it is retaining 76% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.
Moreover, Hanover Insurance Group has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 28% of its profits over the next three years. Regardless, the future ROE for Hanover Insurance Group is predicted to rise to 17% despite there being not much change expected in its payout ratio.
Summary
Overall, we have mixed feelings about Hanover Insurance Group. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
