Is Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) A Sell At Its Current Price?
Heartland Express Inc (NASDAQ:HTLD) trades with a trailing P/E of 35.1x, which is higher than the industry average of 28.1x. While this makes HTLD appear like a stock to avoid or sell if you own it, you might change your mind after I explain the assumptions behind the P/E ratio. Today, I will deconstruct the P/E ratio and highlight what you need to be careful of when using the P/E ratio. See our latest analysis for HTLD
Demystifying the P/E ratio
The P/E ratio is a popular ratio used in relative valuation since earnings power is a key driver of investment value. It compares a stock’s price per share to the stock’s earnings per share. A more intuitive way of understanding the P/E ratio is to think of it as how much investors are paying for each dollar of the company’s earnings.
P/E Calculation for HTLD
Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share
HTLD Price-Earnings Ratio = 22.91 ÷ 0.652 = 35.1x
The P/E ratio itself doesn’t tell you a lot; however, it becomes very insightful when you compare it with other similar companies. We preferably want to compare the stock’s P/E ratio to the average of companies that have similar features to HTLD, such as capital structure and profitability. One way of gathering a peer group is to use firms in the same industry, which is what I’ll do. At 35.1x, HTLD’s P/E is higher than its industry peers (28.1x). This implies that investors are overvaluing each dollar of HTLD’s earnings. As such, our analysis shows that HTLD represents an over-priced stock.
Assumptions to watch out for
While our conclusion might prompt you to sell your HTLD shares immediately, there are two important assumptions you should be aware of. The first is that our “similar companies” are actually similar to HTLD, or else the difference in P/E might be a result of other factors. For example, if you compared higher growth firms with HTLD, then its P/E would naturally be lower since investors would reward its peers’ higher growth with a higher price. The second assumption that must hold true is that the stocks we are comparing HTLD to are fairly valued by the market. If this does not hold, there is a possibility that HTLD’s P/E is lower because our peer group is overvalued by the market.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? Since you may have already conducted your due diligence on HTLD, the overvaluation of the stock may mean it is a good time to reduce your current holdings. But at the end of the day, keep in mind that relative valuation relies heavily on critical assumptions I've outlined above.
Are you a potential investor? If you are considering investing in HTLD, looking at the PE ratio on its own is not enough to make a well-informed decision. You will benefit from looking at additional analysis and considering its intrinsic valuation along with other relative valuation metrics like PEG and EV/Sales.
PE is one aspect of your portfolio construction to consider when holding or entering into a stock. But it is certainly not the only factor. Take a look at our most recent infographic report on Heartland Express for a more in-depth analysis of the stock to help you make a well-informed investment decision. Since we know a limitation of PE is it doesn't properly account for growth, you can use our free platform to see my list of stocks with a high growth potential and see if their PE is still reasonable.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
