Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN) After Its Full-Year Results
It's been a pretty great week for Aspen Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AZPN) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$198 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues came in at US$1.0b, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$1.67 per share, roughly in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Aspen Technology after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Aspen Technology
Following the latest results, Aspen Technology's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.17b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 66% to US$0.56. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.17b and US$0.40 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a massive increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$193, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aspen Technology at US$255 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$175. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aspen Technology's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 65% over the past three years. Compare this to the 509 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Aspen Technology's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$193, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aspen Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Aspen Technology analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Aspen Technology's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
