Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) After Its Annual Results
It's been a good week for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 3.5% to US$80.41. Revenues of US$6.6b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$7.87, missing estimates by 4.3%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 16 analysts covering CF Industries Holdings, is for revenues of US$6.05b in 2024. This implies an uncomfortable 8.8% reduction in CF Industries Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 20% to US$6.45 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.48 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$85.31, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic CF Industries Holdings analyst has a price target of US$100.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$68.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await CF Industries Holdings shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the CF Industries Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.8% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.4% per year. It's pretty clear that CF Industries Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$85.31, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CF Industries Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with CF Industries Holdings .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
