Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Surmodics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SRDX) After Its First-Quarter Results
Surmodics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SRDX) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$31m leading estimates by 3.1%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.06 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Surmodics
Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering Surmodics provided consensus estimates of US$119.4m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 14% decline over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$1.20 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$119.3m and losses of US$1.37 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Surmodics'future looks a little different to the past, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$59.25, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Surmodics at US$75.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$44.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 18% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.0% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Surmodics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Surmodics' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Surmodics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Surmodics .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
