Here's Why You Should Avoid Investing in United Natural (UNFI)
United Natural Foods, Inc. UNFI has been dealing with tough macroeconomic trends, product cost inflation, escalating operating costs and expenses and stiff competition.
The current Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) player has a market capitalization of $1.2 billion. In the past three months, UNFI lost 18.5% against the industry’s 2.6% growth.
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Let’s discuss the factors that might continue to take a toll on the firm.
Soft Industry Trend: United Natural has been witnessing the adverse impacts of increased shrinkage and reduced inflationary benefits related to lower procurement gains, affecting its profitability. In the third quarter of fiscal 2023, UNFI’s adjusted earnings came in at 54 cents per share, reflecting a decline of 50.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. Also, the metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents.
Escalating Operating Costs & Expenses: The company continues to battle increased cost inflation, supply-chain bottlenecks and operational complexities. In the third quarter, its operating expenses remained high at $967 million, with an increase in occupancy-related costs. Notably, UNFI’s gross margin (excluding non-cash charges) contracted to 13.8% from 15% in the year-ago quarter.
Lukewarm Fiscal 2023 Outlook: Based on a tough operating landscape, United Natural lowered its profitability view. For fiscal 2023, the company expects adjusted EBITDA in the range of $610-$650 million, indicating a 24% decline at the midpoint of the guidance. Earlier, it had anticipated adjusted EBITDA in the range of $715-$785 million.
Also, adjusted earnings are envisioned in the range of $1.80-$2.30 per share, down from its previous guidance of $3.05-$3.90. At the midpoint, the metric suggests a year-over-year slump of 57.6%.
Intense Competition: The company has been subject to stiff competition and an aggressive promotional environment. Customers are also becoming more inclined toward private-label products as these are low-cost alternatives to national brands. Such industry-wide headwinds might affect its performance.
Southbound Estimate Trend: In the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024 earnings has been revised down by 31.5% and 24.3%, respectively.
Key Picks
Some better-ranked stocks are Ingredion Incorporated INGR, Nomad Foods Limited NOMD and Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG.
Ingredion is a producer and distributor of sweeteners, nutrition ingredients and biomaterial solutions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for INGR’s current financial-year earnings per share indicates 22.1% rise from the corresponding year-ago reported figure.
Ingredion currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Nomad Foods, sporting a Zacks Rank #1, manufactures and distributes frozen foods. NOMD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.5%, on average.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nomad Foods’ current financial year sales suggests growth of 8%, while earnings are likely to decline 3.4% from the prior-year reported numbers.
Conagra Brands operates as a leading branded food company in North America. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAG’s current financial-year sales and earnings per share suggests growth of 7.1% and 17%, respectively, from the corresponding year-ago reported figures.
Conagra, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.2%, on average.
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