Higher Visits to Soften Cost Blow for Teladoc (TDOC) Q4 Earnings
Teladoc Health, Inc. TDOC is set to report its fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 20, after the closing bell.
Where Do the Estimates Stand?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter loss per share of 22 cents suggests a 4.4% improvement from the prior-year loss of 23 cents. The consensus mark remained stable over the past week. The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues of $670.8 million indicates a 5.2% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Teladoc beat the consensus estimate for earnings in all the prior four quarters, with the average being 14.2%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Teladoc Health, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Teladoc Health, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Teladoc Health, Inc. Quote
Before we get into what to expect for the to-be-reported quarter in detail, it’s worth taking a look at TDOC’s previous-quarter performance first.
Q3 Earnings Rewind
In the last reported quarter, this virtual healthcare services provider’s adjusted loss per share of 35 cents was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 37 cents. The quarterly results benefited on the back of improved access fees, as well as solid contributions from the Integrated Care and BetterHelp segments. An expanding membership base within the Integrated Care unit contributed to the quarterly results. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in visits and escalating expenses.
Now, let’s see how things have shaped up before the fourth-quarter earnings announcement.
Q4 Factors to Note
Teladoc Health’s fourth-quarter results are likely to have gained from higher Access Fees, visits, and segmental growth in both Integrated Care and BetterHelp segments. We expect BetterHelp paying users to have increased in the quarter under review.
Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for fourth-quarter Access Fees revenues indicate a 6.5% increase from the prior-year quarter’s tally of $553.7 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BetterHelp paying users for the fourth quarter suggests a more than 2% rise from a year ago.
For fourth-quarter 2023, the consensus mark indicates a 3.5% year-over-year increase in total visits. Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for U.S. Integrated Care members for the fourth quarter indicates a nearly 8% increase from the year-ago period. The factors stated above are likely to have poised TDOC well for revenue growth.
Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for U.S. revenues for the fourth quarter suggest almost 5% year-over-year growth, while international revenues are expected to jump more than 10%. Moreover, we expect adjusted EBITDA from BetterHelp to have increased more than 24% year over year in the fourth quarter, leading to bottom-line improvement.
However, expenses (excluding goodwill impairments) are expected to have escalated more than 3% in the quarter, primarily due to higher technology and development costs, advertising and marketing, and general and administrative costs. This is expected to have affected profits, making an earnings beat uncertain.
Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for other revenues are pegged at $82.8 million, suggesting a 1.5% decrease from the year-ago figure.
Previously, at the third-quarter earnings release, management stated that it expects total revenues of $658-$683 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $107-$117 million for fourth-quarter 2023. U.S. Integrated Care Members were forecasted to stay within 89-90 million.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Teladoc this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at a loss of 22 cents per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Teladoc currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Teladoc, here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:
Amedisys, Inc. AMED has an Earnings ESP of +2.02% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amedisys’ bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.04 per share, which has remained stable over the past week. AMED beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 11.9%.
Globus Medical, Inc. GMED has an Earnings ESP of +5.68% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Globus Medical’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 59 cents per share, which has witnessed one upward revision over the past month against none in the opposite direction. GMED beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.4%.
Codexis, Inc. CDXS has an Earnings ESP of +81.25% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Codexis’ earnings per share for the to-be-reported quarter indicates a 15.8% year-over-year improvement. CDXS beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 9.5%.
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Amedisys, Inc. (AMED) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Codexis, Inc. (CDXS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Globus Medical, Inc. (GMED) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC) : Free Stock Analysis Report
