Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results
Investors in Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.8% to close at US$9.65 following the release of its full-year results. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Hillman Solutions
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Hillman Solutions' nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.51b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Hillman Solutions forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.10 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.48b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 5.9% to US$11.03, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Hillman Solutions, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$14.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Hillman Solutions shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Hillman Solutions' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 5.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hillman Solutions is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Hillman Solutions analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Hillman Solutions is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
