Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (NYSE:HOMB) Just Released Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
It's been a good week for Home Bancshares, Inc. (Conway, AR) (NYSE:HOMB) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 4.1% to US$24.61. Home Bancshares (Conway AR) reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$985m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.94, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Home Bancshares (Conway AR)
Taking into account the latest results, Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$984.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.91, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$986.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.85 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$26.86, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Home Bancshares (Conway AR) at US$29.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.01% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.3% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Home Bancshares (Conway AR) following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Home Bancshares (Conway AR)'s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Home Bancshares (Conway AR) analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Home Bancshares (Conway AR) that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
