Housing Prices Expected To Drop in These 7 Cities in 2024 — Is Yours One of Them?
It has been a difficult time for many new homebuyers to break into the market in the past couple years. While the housing market isn’t radically slowing, it does appear to be cooling for a number of reasons, which may bode well for those who want to buy a new home in the next year.
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Some housing markets are overvalued, for example, and several of the metro areas on this list may be among those. Some signs pointing to a coming drop in housing prices going forward, according to Forbes, include the fact that mortgage rates dropped in March 2023, and home sales prices fell year-over-year for the first time in almost 11 years in February. GOBankingRates set out to find the metro areas where housing prices are projected to start falling from now until March 2024.
For this piece, we looked at the 100 biggest metros according to Zillow and found key data such as March 2023 typical home value for all homes and year-over-year projected percent change in typical home value. We were then able to find each metro’s projected March 2024 typical home value for all homes and projected monetary change in home value from March 2023 to March 2024.
Here are 7 metro areas where housing prices are expected to drop.
Metro areas with largest Projected Percent Change in Home Value
The following seven metro areas are those with the largest projected percent change drops in home value in the coming year.
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Sacramento, California
March 2023 Home value: $554,365
Year-over-year projected % change in home value: -1.70%
Projected home value in March. 2024: $544,941
Projected change in home value: -$9,424
California hasn’t been known for affordable housing for decades, however, there may be a chance for new homeowners to buy in at a more affordable price in the coming year. The home values are projected to drop by 1.70%, or over $9,424.
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Chicago
March 2023 Home value: $289,344
Year-over-year projected % change in home value: -1.80%
Projected home value in March. 2024: $284,136
Projected change in home value: -$5,208
Chicago’s home value is projected to lose about 1.8% by March of 2024, or $5,208.
Urban Honolulu, Hawaii
March 2023 Home value: $870,229
Year-over-year projected % change in home value: -2.10%
Projected home value in March. 2024: $851,954
Projected change in home value: -$18,275
Hawaii, one of the most expensive states to buy homes in the entire country, may also feel the sting of projected home value decreases to a much greater degree. Homes here could fall as much as 2.1%, or more than $18,000.
San Francisco
March 2023 Home value: $1,111,241
Year-over-year projected % change in home value: -2.30%
Projected home value in March. 2024: $1,085,683
Projected change in home value: -$25,559
No surprise that San Francisco is also on this list. Proximity to Silicon Valley has overinflated San Francisco home values for years, but even the city by the bay can’t keep up with trends. Home values are projected to drop by more than $25,000 in the next year, making this a potentially great time to buy.
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New Orleans
March 2023 Home value: $234,471
Year-over-year projected % change in home value: -2.60%
Projected home value in March. 2024: $228,375
Projected change in home value: -$6,096
The Big Easy is still an affordable place to buy a home, but it might be about to get even more so, as home values are projected to drop by 2.60%, or nearly $6,100.
San Jose, California
March 2023 Home value: $1,432,530
Year-over-year projected % change in home value: -2.60%
Projected home value in March. 2024: $1,395,285
Projected change in home value: -$37,246
This suburb of Silicon Valley, where prices have long become untenable for the average person, is not getting off without a loss either, according to projections. By March of 2024, the average home could lose as much as 2.6% of its value, a more than $37,000 loss.
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
March 2023 Home value: $215,328
Year-over-year projected % change in home value: -2.70%
Projected home value in March. 2024: $209,515
Projected change in home value: -$5,814
Baton Rouge looking at the biggest drop on the list, 2.7% projected drop in home value. However, with home values on the lower side here, that only translates to around $5,814.
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Metro Areas With Largest Projected Monetary Change in Home Value
The following four metro areas are those with the largest projected monetary drops in home value in the coming year:
San Jose, California: -$37,246
San Francisco, California: -$25,559
Urban Honolulu, Hawaii: -$18,275
Oxnard, California: -$11,210
Jordan Rosenfeld contributed to the reporting for this article.
Methodology: For this piece GOBankingRates looked at the 100 biggest metros according to Zillow and found each metros (1) March 2023 typical home value for all homes and (2) year-over-year projected percent change in typical home value as sourced from Zillow. With these two factors GOBankingRates was then able to find each metro’s (3) projected March 2024 typical home value for all homes and (4) projected monetary change in home value from March 2023 to March 2024. GOBankingRates then highlighted the metros with the largest negative values for factor (2) as well as factor (4). All data was collected and is up to date as of May 8, 2023.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Housing Prices Expected To Drop in These 7 Cities in 2024 — Is Yours One of Them?
