IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:IDYA) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:IDYA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.1% to US$44.55 in the week after its latest full-year results. It looks like a moderately negative result overall with revenues falling 14% short of analyst estimates at US$23m. Statutory losses were US$1.96 per share, roughly in line with what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on IDEAYA Biosciences after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for IDEAYA Biosciences
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering IDEAYA Biosciences, is for revenues of US$18.8m in 2024. This implies an uneasy 20% reduction in IDEAYA Biosciences' revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 44% to US$2.19 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$20.9m and US$2.33 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.
The consensus price target rose 16% to US$50.67, with the analysts increasingly optimistic about shrinking losses, despite the expected decline in revenue. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values IDEAYA Biosciences at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$40.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting IDEAYA Biosciences is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 20% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 46% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. It's pretty clear that IDEAYA Biosciences' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for IDEAYA Biosciences going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that IDEAYA Biosciences is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
