Ikena Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ:IKNA) Just Reported Earnings, And Analysts Cut Their Target Price
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Ikena Oncology, Inc. (NASDAQ:IKNA), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was not a great result overall, as revenues of US$3.4m fell 26% short of analyst expectations. Unsurprisingly, statutory losses ended up being11% larger than the analysts expected, at US$0.47 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Ikena Oncology
Taking into account the latest results, Ikena Oncology's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2022 to be US$30.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.51 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$31.7m and losses of US$1.44 per share in 2022. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on Ikena Oncology after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.
The consensus price target fell 5.2% to US$24.33, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ikena Oncology at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.4% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 227% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ikena Oncology is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ikena Oncology analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Ikena Oncology you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
