Investors in Indivior PLC (LON:INDV) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.9% to close at UK£1.10 following the release of its second-quarter results. It was a mildly positive result, with revenues exceeding expectations at US$150m, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 were in line with analyst forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Indivior after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, Indivior's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2020 to be US$597.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 28% to US$0.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$584.1m and losses of US$0.19 per share in 2020.
The consensus price target held steady at US$2.82despite the upgrade to revenue forecasts and ongoing losses. The analysts seems to think the business is otherwise performing roughly in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Indivior analyst has a price target of US$3.22 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.65. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's also worth noting that the years of declining sales look to have come to an end, with the forecast for flat revenues next year. Historically, Indivior's sales have shrunk approximately 7.7% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.4% per year. Although Indivior's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though sales are expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$2.82, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Indivior going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Indivior you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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