Industry Analysts Just Made A Meaningful Upgrade To Their Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) Revenue Forecasts
Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MIRM) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The consensus estimated revenue numbers rose, with their view now clearly much more bullish on the company's business prospects.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from Mirum Pharmaceuticals' six analysts is for revenues of US$141m in 2023, which would reflect a huge 83% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 20% to US$2.86. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$122m and losses of US$2.91 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts noticeably increasing their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to hold steady.
View our latest analysis for Mirum Pharmaceuticals
There were no major changes to the US$51.38 consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation than growing sales. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Mirum Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$81.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 83% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 119% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Mirum Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Mirum Pharmaceuticals is moving incrementally towards profitability. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Mirum Pharmaceuticals.
That's a pretty serious upgrade, but shareholders might be even more pleased to know that forecasts expect Mirum Pharmaceuticals to be able to reach break-even within the next few years. For more information, you can click through to our free platform to learn more about these forecasts.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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