Intrinsic Calculation For Exelixis Inc (NASDAQ:EXEL) Shows Investors Are Overpaying
Does the share price for Exelixis Inc (NASDAQ:EXEL) reflect it’s really worth? Today, I will calculate the stock’s intrinsic value using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. If you want to learn more about this method, the basis for my calculations can be found in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this after June 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Exelixis here.
What’s the value?
I use what is known as the 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the initial phase has higher growth rates that plateau over time. To begin, I took the analyst consensus forecast of EXEL’s levered free cash flow (FCF) over the next five years and discounted these figures at the cost of equity of 10.61%. When estimates weren’t available, I’ve extrapolated the average annual growth rate over the previous five years, capped at a reasonable level. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of US$1.10B. Want to understand how I calculated this value? Read our detailed analysis here.
The graph above shows how EXEL’s top and bottom lines are expected to move going forward, which should give you an idea of EXEL’s outlook. Next, I calculate the terminal value, which is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. I think it’s suitable to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the stable growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. The present value of the terminal value after discounting it back five years is US$3.43B.
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$4.54B. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of $15.29, which, compared to the current share price of $20.81, we see that Exelixis is rather overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For EXEL, I’ve compiled three key aspects you should look at:
Financial Health: Does EXEL have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does EXEL’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of EXEL? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
