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Should You Investigate United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) At US$212?

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Let's talk about the popular United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS). The company's shares saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s examine United Parcel Service’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

See our latest analysis for United Parcel Service

What is United Parcel Service worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 17.05% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy United Parcel Service today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $180.89, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since United Parcel Service’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What kind of growth will United Parcel Service generate?

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. United Parcel Service's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 47%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? UPS’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on UPS, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for United Parcel Service (1 is potentially serious) you should be familiar with.

If you are no longer interested in United Parcel Service, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.