Investing in BKI Investment (ASX:BKI) three years ago would have delivered you a 42% gain
By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the BKI Investment Company Limited (ASX:BKI) share price is up 25% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 21% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 12% , including dividends .
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Check out our latest analysis for BKI Investment
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During three years of share price growth, BKI Investment achieved compound earnings per share growth of 10% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 8% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free interactive report on BKI Investment's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, BKI Investment's TSR for the last 3 years was 42%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
BKI Investment's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 12%. Most would be happy with a gain, and it helps that the year's return is actually better than the average return over five years, which was 8%. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for BKI Investment that you should be aware of.
BKI Investment is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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