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Investors Who Bought Hostelworld Group (LON:HSW) Shares Three Years Ago Are Now Down 49%

Simply Wall St

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. We regret to report that long term Hostelworld Group plc (LON:HSW) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 49% in three years, versus a market return of about 19%. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 43% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 35% in the last three months.

See our latest analysis for Hostelworld Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Hostelworld Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 58% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 20% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:HSW Past and Future Earnings, October 12th 2019

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Hostelworld Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Hostelworld Group, it has a TSR of -40% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Hostelworld Group shareholders are down 39% for the year (even including dividends) , but the broader market is up 8.3%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. The three-year loss of 16% per year isn't as bad as the last twelve months, suggesting that the company has not been able to convince the market it has solved its problems. We would be wary of buying into a company with unsolved problems, although some investors will buy into struggling stocks if they believe the price is sufficiently attractive. Keeping this in mind, a solid next step might be to take a look at Hostelworld Group's dividend track record. This free interactive graph is a great place to start.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.