Investors more bullish on Aurizon Holdings (ASX:AZJ) this week as stock advances 5.1%, despite earnings trending downwards over past three years
Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Aurizon Holdings Limited (ASX:AZJ) shareholders, since the share price is down 10% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 29%. On the other hand the share price has bounced 5.1% over the last week. But this could be related to the strong market, with stocks up around 2.7% in the same time.
While the stock has risen 5.1% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
Check out our latest analysis for Aurizon Holdings
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Aurizon Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 17% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 4% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Aurizon Holdings the TSR over the last 3 years was 7.0%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Aurizon Holdings provided a TSR of 9.1% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Aurizon Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
