Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) defied analyst predictions to release its annual results, which were ahead of market expectations. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$788m exceeding analyst forecasts by 24%, and statutory losses of US$2.56 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Ionis Pharmaceuticals
After the latest results, the consensus from Ionis Pharmaceuticals' 21 analysts is for revenues of US$644.8m in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 18% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 61% to US$4.03 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$635.3m and US$3.86 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Ionis Pharmaceuticals after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a modest increase to per-share loss expectations.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$56.31, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ionis Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$29.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Ionis Pharmaceuticals' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 18% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 4.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 17% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Ionis Pharmaceuticals is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ionis Pharmaceuticals' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$56.31, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ionis Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Ionis Pharmaceuticals that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
