Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) Down 2.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS). Shares have lost about 2.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ionis Pharmaceuticals due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Q4 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates
Ionis reported a loss of 6 cents per share for fourth-quarter 2023, which was significantly narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 78 cents per share.
The bottom line includes compensation expenses related to equity awards. Excluding these special items, adjusted earnings per share were 12 cents against a loss of $1.18 per share in the year-ago quarter.
Total revenues were $325 million in the fourth quarter, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $184.0 million. Revenues rose 130% year over year, primarily driven by increased R&D revenues from partnered programs.
Quarter in Detail
Commercial revenues were $79 million in the fourth quarter, down 1.3% year over year. Commercial revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $95 million.
Commercial revenues from Spinraza royalties were $62 million, down 7.5% year over. Spinraza royalties missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $67 million. Other commercial revenues were $17 million compared with $13 million in the year-ago quarter.
Other commercial revenues include revenues from Tegsedi and Waylivra distribution fees and license and royalty revenues. License and royalty revenues also include royalties from Qalsody U.S. product sales.
R&D revenues rose 242% year over year to $246.0 million. Collaborative agreement revenues were $179 million in the quarter compared with $51 million in the year-ago quarter. Joint development revenues for Wainua (eplontersen) from partner AstraZeneca were $67 million in the quarter compared with $21 million in the year-ago quarter.
Ionis and partner AstraZeneca’s Wainua (eplontersen) was approved by the FDA in December for treating patients with ATTRv-PN. The launch in the United States is underway. Following the FDA approval, Ionis received a $50 million milestone payment from AstraZeneca. Applications seeking approval of eplontersen for ATTRv-PN are under review in the EU and some other countries.
Adjusted operating costs declined 9% year over year to $305 million in the quarter, mainly due to lower R&D costs, which offset higher SG&A costs for go-to-market activities for Wainua, olezarsen and donidalorsen.
2024 Guidance
Ionis issued financial guidance for 2024. The company expects total revenues to be more than $575 million in 2024. Adjusted operating loss is expected to be less than $475 million. Adjusted operating expenses are expected to increase in the mid-single-digit range year over year in 2024.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -7.52% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Ionis Pharmaceuticals has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
