JD.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:JD) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?
JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 16% over the last month. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Specifically, we decided to study JD.com's ROE in this article.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
View our latest analysis for JD.com
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for JD.com is:
7.8% = CN¥23b ÷ CN¥296b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.08 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
JD.com's Earnings Growth And 7.8% ROE
On the face of it, JD.com's ROE is not much to talk about. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 21% either. JD.com was still able to see a decent net income growth of 8.7% over the past five years. So, there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.
As a next step, we compared JD.com's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 14% in the same period.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is JD worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether JD is currently mispriced by the market.
Is JD.com Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
With a three-year median payout ratio of 35% (implying that the company retains 65% of its profits), it seems that JD.com is reinvesting efficiently in a way that it sees respectable amount growth in its earnings and pays a dividend that's well covered.
While JD.com has been growing its earnings, it only recently started to pay dividends which likely means that the company decided to impress new and existing shareholders with a dividend. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 14% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in JD.com's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 13%, over the same period.
Conclusion
In total, it does look like JD.com has some positive aspects to its business. Specifically, its fairly high earnings growth number, which no doubt was backed by the company's high earnings retention. Still, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping a lot of benefit to the investors. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
