Has Johnson Service Group PLC's (LON:JSG) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?
Johnson Service Group (LON:JSG) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 7.8% over the last month. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Specifically, we decided to study Johnson Service Group's ROE in this article.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
Check out our latest analysis for Johnson Service Group
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Johnson Service Group is:
13% = UK£34m ÷ UK£269m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every £1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of £0.13.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Johnson Service Group's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE
To begin with, Johnson Service Group seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 13%. For this reason, Johnson Service Group's five year net income decline of 3.2% raises the question as to why the decent ROE didn't translate into growth. So, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.
However, when we compared Johnson Service Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 28% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is JSG fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.
Is Johnson Service Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
When we piece together Johnson Service Group's low three-year median payout ratio of 16% (where it is retaining 84% of its profits), calculated for the last three-year period, we are puzzled by the lack of growth. The low payout should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see some growth. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.
In addition, Johnson Service Group has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 36% over the next three years. Despite the higher expected payout ratio, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much.
Conclusion
Overall, we feel that Johnson Service Group certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
