Julius Bär Gruppe AG (VTX:BAER) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
It's been a good week for Julius Bär Gruppe AG (VTX:BAER) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 7.1% to CHF63.42. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of CHF3.9b and statutory earnings per share of CHF4.56. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Julius Bär Gruppe
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Julius Bär Gruppe's 15 analysts is for revenues of CHF4.03b in 2023, which would reflect a credible 4.6% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 15% to CHF5.41. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF4.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF5.25 in 2023. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target was unchanged at CHF67.57, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Julius Bär Gruppe at CHF75.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF62.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Julius Bär Gruppe is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Julius Bär Gruppe's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.6% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.4% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Julius Bär Gruppe is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Julius Bär Gruppe following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to sales forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Julius Bär Gruppe analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Julius Bär Gruppe's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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