Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
The investors in Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:KNSL) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 21% to US$505 in the week following its annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.2b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Kinsale Capital Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$13.22 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Kinsale Capital Group
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kinsale Capital Group's eight analysts is for revenues of US$1.56b in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 11% to US$14.82. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.54b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.31 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Kinsale Capital Group's earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target rose 11% to US$454, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Kinsale Capital Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$607 and the most bearish at US$370 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Kinsale Capital Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Kinsale Capital Group'shistorical trends, as the 28% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 32% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.9% annually. So although Kinsale Capital Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Kinsale Capital Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kinsale Capital Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kinsale Capital Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It might also be worth considering whether Kinsale Capital Group's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
