Are Kip McGrath Education Centres Limited's (ASX:KME) Mixed Financials The Reason For Its Gloomy Performance on The Stock Market?
It is hard to get excited after looking at Kip McGrath Education Centres' (ASX:KME) recent performance, when its stock has declined 3.1% over the past month. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. In this article, we decided to focus on Kip McGrath Education Centres' ROE.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
Check out our latest analysis for Kip McGrath Education Centres
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Kip McGrath Education Centres is:
8.6% = AU$1.9m ÷ AU$22m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2022).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.09.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.
Kip McGrath Education Centres' Earnings Growth And 8.6% ROE
At first glance, Kip McGrath Education Centres' ROE doesn't look very promising. However, the fact that the its ROE is quite higher to the industry average of 3.7% doesn't go unnoticed by us. But seeing Kip McGrath Education Centres' five year net income decline of 2.7% over the past five years, we might rethink that. Bear in mind, the company does have a slightly low ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is lower. Hence, this goes some way in explaining the shrinking earnings.
That being said, we compared Kip McGrath Education Centres' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 0.8% in the same period.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Kip McGrath Education Centres is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.
Is Kip McGrath Education Centres Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
Kip McGrath Education Centres has a high three-year median payout ratio of 58% (that is, it is retaining 42% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely. Our risks dashboard should have the 3 risks we have identified for Kip McGrath Education Centres.
Moreover, Kip McGrath Education Centres has been paying dividends for eight years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 50%.
Conclusion
Overall, we have mixed feelings about Kip McGrath Education Centres. Primarily, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a moderate ROE. Bear in mind, the company reinvests a small portion of its profits, which explains the lack of growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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