Loan Growth, High Rates to Aid Hilltop Holdings' (HTH) Top Line
Hilltop Holdings Inc. HTH is poised for top-line growth, driven by decent loan demand and higher interest rates. A solid balance sheet and the company’s business-restructuring efforts are expected to keep aiding financials.
Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2023 earnings has been revised 8.7% upward. This shows that analysts are optimistic regarding HTH’s earnings growth potential. The company currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
So far this year, shares of HTH have lost 4.2% compared with the industry’s 12% decline.
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Looking at its fundamentals, while Hilltop Holdings’ net interest income (NII) declined in 2020 and 2021, the same witnessed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3% over the four-year period ended 2022. The rise was partly driven by acquisitions completed during that period and higher interest rates.
Similarly, supported by higher interest rates, the company’s net interest margin (NIM) increased to 2.87% in 2022 from 2.57% in 2021. The uptrend for NII and NIM continued in the first nine months of 2023.
With the Federal Reserve expected to keep interest rates high in the near term, HTH’s NII and NIM are expected to improve, although rising deposit costs might weigh on them. Management expects NII in 2023 to increase 2-5% year over year. We project NII to rise 2.3% in 2023. NIM is expected to be 3.07% in 2023, 2.95% in 2024 and 3.07% in 2025.
Hilltop Holdings has a sound balance sheet. As of Sep 30, 2023, the company had total debt of $1.28 billion, and cash and due from banks worth $1.51 billion. It maintains investment grade ratings of BBB+/Baa2 and a stable outlook from Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service, respectively. This renders it favorable access to the debt market.
Supported by a strong balance sheet and earnings strength, the company is expected to be able to sustain efficient capital distribution activities. It announced a dividend for the first time in 2016. Since then, HTH has been increasing dividends on a regular basis. Also, the company’s board of directors approved a stock repurchase program through January 2024, under which the company may repurchase up to $75 million of its outstanding common stock. As of Sep 30, 2023, $70.5 million worth of shares remained to be repurchased under the authorization.
However, elevated costs (we project costs to witness a CAGR of 1.1% by 2025), poor asset quality (we expect provisions to surge 175% in 2023) and lower mortgage origination volumes (likely to hurt the Mortgage Origination segment's performance) are near-term headwinds for Hilltop Holdings.
Yet, the company’s business-restructuring efforts will likely keep aiding financials. In 2020, HTH divested its insurance division — National Lloyds Corporation. Since the buyout of PlainsCapital in 2012, the company’s business has expanded tremendously through acquisitions with the consolidation of its position in Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Tennessee and Arizona. These deals are not only accretive to earnings but have also helped the company diversify its operations.
Other Finance Stocks Worth a Look
A couple of other top-ranked stocks from the finance space are Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. CTBI and Fifth Third Bancorp FITB.
Community Trust currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company’s earnings estimates for 2023 have been revised 5% upward over the past 60 days. In the past six months, CTBI shares have gained 15.9%. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Earnings estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp have been revised 3.3% upward for 2023 over the past 60 days. Shares of FITB have rallied 3.5% in the past six months. The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
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