A look at On-Chain metrics for bitcoin (BTC), specifically the Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-score, and Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).
All three of these on-chain indicators suggest that a further increase is expected for BTC.
The Puell Multiple is a metric that divides the dollar value of all minted coins with a yearly moving average of that same value.
Historically, when this indicator reaches values above four (highlighted region) have been signs of the previous tops.
The April 2013 high had a value of 10.1, while the December 2013 high had a value of 9.41. Finally, the December 2017 high had a value of 6.72.
The current Puell Multiple value is 2.62. Therefore, according to the previous historical values, BTC is not yet close to reaching a top.
The MVRV value is the ratio between the market capitalization and the realized market capitalization.
The realized market capitalization assigns value to BTC based on when the UTXOs were last moved. This is done to adjust for coins held for an extended period and the coins that are lost.
The MVRV Z score adds a standard deviation to the previous calculation.
Historically, MVRV Z scores above 7 have noted the top.
The top in April 2013 had a value of 12.54, while in December 2013, it reached a value of 11.05. In December 2017, it was at a value of 11.01.
The current Z score is 5.35.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPRT) divides the realized value by the value at the creation of a spent output. This basically means dividing the price sold by the price paid.
The aSOPR ignores outputs with lifespan less than one hour.
If an aSOPR is more than one, it means that, on average, users are selling in profit.
While not as proficient as the other previous two long-term indicators, the aSOPR has been relatively decent at predicting short-term movements.
Values above 1.20 (meaning that coins sold are on average being sold 20% higher than they were bought) have indicated short-term tops. Except for an aSOPR value of 1.38 on Dec. 28, 2020, these high values have noted the top.
The current aSOPR value is 1.055.
Therefore, this suggests that the market is not overheated even in the short term.
To conclude, long-term indicators such as the Puell Multiple and the MVRV Z-Score suggest that the top is not yet in.
Furthermore, a shorter-term indicator such as the aSOPR says the same thing.