A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Centerra Gold Inc. (TSE:CG)
Key Insights
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Centerra Gold fair value estimate is CA$7.99
Current share price of CA$7.70 suggests Centerra Gold is potentially trading close to its fair value
Our fair value estimate is 22% lower than Centerra Gold's analyst price target of US$10.26
Does the March share price for Centerra Gold Inc. (TSE:CG) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Centerra Gold
Crunching The Numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$68.8m | US$60.7m | US$97.0m | US$86.3m | US$80.1m | US$76.6m | US$74.6m | US$73.8m | US$73.6m | US$74.0m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x8 | Analyst x7 | Analyst x4 | Est @ -11.07% | Est @ -7.15% | Est @ -4.41% | Est @ -2.49% | Est @ -1.15% | Est @ -0.21% | Est @ 0.45% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | US$64.2 | US$52.9 | US$78.8 | US$65.4 | US$56.7 | US$50.6 | US$46.0 | US$42.4 | US$39.5 | US$37.1 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$534m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$74m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.0%) = US$1.5b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.5b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$732m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.3b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$7.7, the company appears about fair value at a 3.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Centerra Gold as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.123. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Centerra Gold
Strength
Currently debt free.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.
Opportunity
Expected to breakeven next year.
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.
Revenue is forecast to decrease over the next 2 years.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Centerra Gold, there are three fundamental aspects you should consider:
Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Centerra Gold , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for CG's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
