Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. The numbers were fairly weak, with revenue of US$70m missing analyst predictions by 7.0%, and (statutory) losses of US$1.47 per share being slightly larger than what the analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Luminar Technologies
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Luminar Technologies' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$115.2m in 2024. This would reflect a substantial 65% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 9.2% to US$1.26 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$177.0m and US$1.32 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.
The consensus price target fell 12% to US$6.74, with the dip in revenue estimates clearly souring sentiment, despite the forecast reduction in losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Luminar Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$1.50 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Luminar Technologies' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 65% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 38% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Luminar Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Luminar Technologies' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Luminar Technologies' future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Luminar Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Luminar Technologies , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
