Is Magna International Inc. (TSE:MG) Trading At A 50% Discount?

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Magna International is CA$156 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Magna International is estimated to be 50% undervalued based on current share price of CA$78.18

• The US$97.33 analyst price target for MG is 38% less than our estimate of fair value

Does the December share price for Magna International Inc. (TSE:MG) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Magna International

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.17b	US$1.88b	US$2.36b	US$2.56b	US$2.70b	US$2.82b	US$2.93b	US$3.02b	US$3.11b	US$3.18b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x8	Analyst x6	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Est @ 5.62%	Est @ 4.51%	Est @ 3.74%	Est @ 3.19%	Est @ 2.82%	Est @ 2.55%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3%	US$1.1k	US$1.6k	US$1.8k	US$1.8k	US$1.7k	US$1.7k	US$1.6k	US$1.5k	US$1.4k	US$1.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$15b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.2b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (9.3%– 1.9%) = US$44b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$44b÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)¹⁰= US$18b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$34b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$78.2, the company appears quite undervalued at a 50% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

TSX:MG Discounted Cash Flow December 22nd 2023

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Magna International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.465. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Magna International

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Auto Components industry.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Auto Components market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Canadian market.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Dividends are not covered by cash flow.

• Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Magna International, there are three fundamental factors you should look at:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Magna International that you should be aware of before investing here.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for MG's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.