Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Recent Stock Performance Tethered To Its Strong Fundamentals?
Marathon Petroleum's (NYSE:MPC) stock is up by a considerable 25% over the past three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. In this article, we decided to focus on Marathon Petroleum's ROE.
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.
Check out our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Marathon Petroleum is:
36% = US$11b ÷ US$31b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.36.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Marathon Petroleum's Earnings Growth And 36% ROE
First thing first, we like that Marathon Petroleum has an impressive ROE. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 21% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. Under the circumstances, Marathon Petroleum's considerable five year net income growth of 49% was to be expected.
Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Marathon Petroleum's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 37% in the same period, which is great to see.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is MPC fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.
Is Marathon Petroleum Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Marathon Petroleum has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 11%, meaning that it has the remaining 89% left over to reinvest into its business. So it looks like Marathon Petroleum is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business, which shows in its earnings growth.
Moreover, Marathon Petroleum is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 28% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 22%) over the same period.
Conclusion
On the whole, we feel that Marathon Petroleum's performance has been quite good. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
