Is The Market Rewarding Bapcor Limited (ASX:BAP) With A Negative Sentiment As A Result Of Its Mixed Fundamentals?
With its stock down 4.4% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Bapcor (ASX:BAP). It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Bapcor's ROE today.
Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
View our latest analysis for Bapcor
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Bapcor is:
9.4% = AU$106m ÷ AU$1.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.09 in profit.
What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Bapcor's Earnings Growth And 9.4% ROE
On the face of it, Bapcor's ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 8.7%, we may spare it some thought. Even so, Bapcor has shown a fairly decent growth in its net income which grew at a rate of 7.3%. Taking into consideration that the ROE is not particularly high, we reckon that there could also be other factors at play which could be influencing the company's growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.
As a next step, we compared Bapcor's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 16% in the same period.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for BAP? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Bapcor Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
While Bapcor has a three-year median payout ratio of 61% (which means it retains 39% of profits), the company has still seen a fair bit of earnings growth in the past, meaning that its high payout ratio hasn't hampered its ability to grow.
Besides, Bapcor has been paying dividends over a period of nine years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 58%. However, Bapcor's ROE is predicted to rise to 13% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.
Conclusion
On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Bapcor can be open to many interpretations. Although the company has shown a fair bit of growth in earnings, the reinvestment rate is low. Meaning, the earnings growth number could have been significantly higher had the company been retaining more of its profits and reinvesting that at a higher rate of return. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
