Markets Cool Ahead of Retail Earnings, PPI & More

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While all four major indices today spent time in the green this afternoon — the Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 less than the others, the Dow more — markets ended the day much where they started it: lower. In fact, the closing bell saw session lows, with 10 of 11 sectors on the S&P 500 down; only Healthcare put up a positive number. Real Estate was the worst-performing sector on the day, nearly -3%. The Dow slipped -0.62%, the S&P was -0.89%, the Nasdaq -1.12% and the Russell -1.14%.

This week brings us key data on Q3 earnings from major players in Retail, including Walmart WMT and Home Depot HD tomorrow morning. Both these stocks sold off more than -2% on the day, and carry Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) ratings into their earnings reports. Walmart is expected to reports -10% earnings per share on +5% revenues for the quarter, while Home Depot is anticipated to bring almost +5% on the bottom line and +3% on the top. The specialty big box is riding a nine-quarter winning streak on earnings.

What we’re seeing that plays into the ongoing narrative on the domestic economy today is more layoffs from big-name mega-cap stocks. The latest of these is Amazon AMZN, which has announced it will be laying off -10K workers. This follows similar big layoffs from Disney DIS, Meta META and Twitter announced previously. The holiday cyclical period will likely keep Retail relatively safe through the end of the year, but what of companies like Cisco CSCO and NVIDIA NVDA, which also report this week?

In any case, tomorrow also brings us new October data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the November print on Empire State manufacturing. For PPI, month over month is expected in-line with the previous month at +0.4%. Analysts also look for a lower year-over-year PPI read; after seven straight months over +10% PPI year over year, we’ve now seen three straight below. Empire State has only posted three positive months year to date, with October’s print last month coming in -9.1%, which is still several times better than the -31% posted last February.

These pending figures, while important, do take a step back from the latest Fed policy meeting, CPI numbers and non-farm payrolls, all of which we have already seen for the month. Along with Q3 earnings season entering its last leg, we will likely start to find fewer market catalysts going forward as the holidays and end of the year approach. But in aggregate, this week’s data may yet push or pull sentiment in either direction, depending on the quality of the numbers.

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