Mayor Joe Hogsett announces bid for third term
Mayor Hogsett announced Tuesday evening beneath the vaulted ceilings of the historic City Market that he is running for a third and final term, putting him head-to-head with Democratic challenger Robin Shackleford.
The venue, booked out for his political announcement and a private fundraising event right afterward, was filled with more than a hundred supporters.
“My vision isn’t one of maintaining what we have, it’s time to do what Indianapolis does best, building for an exciting future,” Hogsett told supporters.
Both Democratic candidates stand to make history if they win.
Hogsett would become the only mayor other than Republican Bill Hudnut to serve more than two terms since 1970, when Unigov consolidated the city and county governments. That would put Hogsett in with esteemed company. Hudnut, of course, served four terms and is known for revitalizing downtown and building the city's reputation as a sports hub.
If Shackleford wins, she would become the city’s first woman, first Black and first non-white mayor.
Shackleford told IndyStar after Hogsett’s announcement that she welcomes the exchange of ideas.
"Eight years is a long time, plenty of time, to address a lot of these issues we have had that the city has not addressed. I think this is a new day. I do feel like people have been overlooked and not included in the past eight years and my goal is to make sure everyone feels welcomed and included as we develop new policies that represent them."
More:Democratic Rep. Robin Shackleford to run for Indianapolis mayor
Hogsett focused on COVID-19 impact
Hogsett foregrounded his speech by discussing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which claimed the lives of 3,000 Indianapolis residents.
“I am equally confident that in the decades to come, people will also find inspiration from this time,” he said, “inspiration drawn from the people of Indianapolis who in the face of hopelessness came together and personified the very best of our city.”
Supporters chanted “four more years” as Hogsett outlined why he is seeking one more term. Known for being a fiscally prudent moderate, Hogsett touted balanced budgets and steady tax rates.
Hogsett said he is running again to finish the work he has started, especially on his $150 million violence reduction plan.
He said his crime plan has been working and wants to see it through, citing data that there has been a 15% decrease in the number of criminal homicides and a 14% decrease in non fatal shootings.
He referenced his 2015 primary campaign, where he said he was not running to be the mayor of the Democratic party, but to be the mayor of Indianapolis. He reiterated his commitment to that, pointing to the bipartisan support for the city budgets and other major policy programs.
He said his administration was able to deliver $168 million in pandemic aid, including through the IndyRent program which has provided rental assistance to low-income tenants since 2020.
Hogsett touted the achievements of his administration in boosting pandemic recovery.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars were pumped into our local economy, where we safely hosted the biggest events anyone had seen since the beginning of the pandemic,” he said, “including the Indianapolis 500 and an NCAA March Madness basketball tournament unlike no other.”
He also said his administration has made long-overdue investments in the police department, boosting officer pay, and improvements to police accountability.
A major champion of business-friendly economic development, Hogsett also said that in Indianapolis, “our booming economy is a rising tide that lifts up every neighborhood, and growth does not displace longtime residents who have every right to enjoy it.”
But for all that, Hogsett said he was not there to talk about yesterday.
“All I can see as I stand here tonight is tomorrow," he said.
But, he made it clear this would be his final term.
He did not take questions from the media afterward.
Hogsett faces headwinds
While it is too early to say how close the Hogsett-Shackleford primary will be, experts said he faces headwinds to convince voters to elect him for a third time.
“An incumbent is always going to have liabilities,” University of Indianapolis political scientist Laura Merrifield Wilson said. “He’s in this precarious position where he’s served for eight years and many people are going to want to know, what’s the value?
“If reelected, what is he going to do for us for in the next four years that he hasn’t done for us and why hasn’t he done that for us?”
Still, there is no doubt Hogsett has incumbency advantage, name recognition, and a strong consolidated voter base on his side, political experts said.
His fundraising prowess is thus far unmatched by his primary opponent, having ended last year with $2.4 million in cash on hand, according to the most recent campaign finance filings. Shackleford has about $8,000 left in her uncontested statehouse campaign fund, as of Oct. 14.
In two terms, experts said he’s established himself as a pragmatic, business-friendly, and fiscally prudent mayor who’s seen the city through major economic investments, such as the renovation of Gainbridge Fieldhouse and the Elanco global headquarters at the former GM stamping plant, the opening of the new criminal justice center and a mental health-based approach to crime reduction.
In a city lacking much-needed infrastructure, he also saw to the end of a 35-year moratorium on new streetlights, one of his 2015 campaign promises. The city also worked with state lawmakers to create a financing method to pay for a $150 million expansion of the Indiana Convention Center anchored by two Hilton hotels.
“Do you want investment measured in the billions with a B?” Hogsett said during his speech, pointing to other major developments like the new IU health district, 16 Tech, and Bottleworks district. “You like Gainbridge Fieldhouse, the Fieldhouse of the future?” he said. “Well just wait til you see our Indiana convention center expansion.”
But at the same time, he could face blowback from the perceptions of increased crime and lack of safety in the city, Wilson said, as well as the challenge of revitalizing downtown businesses when they’ve been decimated by the pandemic.
The pandemic and racial justice protests of 2020 have loomed large over his second term and forestalled some of the progress he might have wanted to make, she said. This could be a factor in him deciding to bid for a third term, she said, because he hasn’t been able to see all the fruits of his labor.
And, for all of Hogsett's talk that no one is being displaced as downtown continues to redevelop, many, especially in the Black community, have worried about the increasing gentrification in places like Riverside along the White River where 16 Tech is being built and Norwood by the justice center.
Shackleford said his administration has not done enough to counteract displacement from development.
"Overall there has been serious concerns with development and displacement taking place all over the city, not just in minority neighborhoods, but also in those diverse neighborhoods," Shackleford told IndyStar Tuesday. "I do think more can be done."
He might want to see the city through major accomplishments he’s helped the city secure, Wilson said, including the 2024 NBA All-Star Game.
“If I had to give a grade to Mayor Hogsett right now, it’s probably incomplete,” University of Indianapolis political scientist Greg Shufeldt said. “I think he hasn't necessarily identified what he hopes to be his legacy yet."
Given that the red wave in Indiana in the midterm confirmed Democrats are unlikely to win statewide anytime soon, Shufeldt said, the absence of any other viable political office that Hogsett could run for also likely plays a role in his run for reelection as mayor.
“Staying in a position of power in Indianapolis is probably more attractive than running unsuccessfully for a statewide office,” he said.
Experts predict Democratic primary will determine 2024 mayor
With Indianapolis trending more Democratic in recent elections, barring something unforeseen, pundits generally think the winner of the primary is likely to become the next mayor.
Hogsett has presided over the city at a time when urban areas across the country are becoming increasingly blue, Shufeldt said. Those trends helped Democrats secure both City Hall and a majority on the City-County Council in 2015 for the first time since 2003. Hogsett rode a blue wave to overwhelming victory in 2019, which also saw Indianapolis Democrats gain a supermajority of the City-County Council.
Given how Democratic Prosecutor Ryan Mears solidly defeated his strong, well-funded Republican opponent Cyndi Carrasco in last week’s midterm, despite high-profile criticism, political experts said it is unlikely that Indianapolis would elect a Republican mayor anytime soon.
Marion County Republicans released a statement after Hogsett's announcement that indicates they too will be watching the primary closely. The statement pulls a quote from Shackleford's own mayoral announcement to use against Hogsett.
"Even Democrat Rep. Robin Shackleford described Joe Hogsett’s Indianapolis as a city with '…pothole-ridden streets where residents struggle to get enough to eat and worry that at any moment a stray bullet will travel through their wall and strike their child.'"
Experts said that Shackleford’s chances of beating Hogsett will hinge in whether she’s able to build a strong coalition of voters who will show up for her, especially in the neighborhoods she’s represented at the Statehouse and among the Black voter base.
Historical turnout for mayoral Democratic primaries has been anemic, Shufeldt said.
“I would imagine the people who have voted for (Hogsett) twice are more likely to vote for him for a third time,” Shufeldt said.
Contact IndyStar reporter Ko Lyn Cheang at kcheang@indystar.com or 317-903-7071. Follow her on Twitter: @kolyn_cheang.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indianapolis 2023 mayoral elections: Joe Hogsett to run for third term
