Moderna (MRNA) Soars 8.7%: Is Further Upside Left in the Stock?

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Moderna MRNA shares soared 8.7% in the last trading session to close at $111.98. The move was backed by solid volume with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This compares to the stock's 17.9% gain over the past four weeks.

Share price rose after a government website posted details of initiation of a phase II/III study on mRNA-4157/V940, Moderna’s investigational individualized neoantigen therapy (INT), in patients with cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC), a form of skin cancer. The INT is being developed in collaboration with Merck.

The phase II/III study (called INTerpath-007) will evaluate the safety and efficacy of mRNA-4157, combined with Merck’s blockbuster immuno-oncology drug Keytruda, as neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy in patients with resectable locally advanced CSCC, when compared to standard of care (SoC) only. The study is expected to begin next month.

Once initiated, the INTerpath-007 study will be Moderna/Merck’s third clinical study in the INTerpath program. The companies are already evaluating mRNA-4157 in separate late-stage tudies across melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer indications. The initiation of this new study highlights the companies’ confidence in the INTerpath program.

This biotechnology company is expected to post quarterly loss of $3.01 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -1684.2%. Revenues are expected to be $401.97 million, down 78.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Earnings and revenue growth expectations certainly give a good sense of the potential strength in a stock, but empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.

For Moderna, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 17.8% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. And a negative trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't usually translate into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on MRNA going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

Moderna belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Blueprint Medicines BPMC, closed the last trading session 3.1% lower at $89.47. Over the past month, BPMC has returned 20.6%.

Blueprint Medicines' consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming report has changed +5.5% over the past month to -$1.65. Compared to the company's year-ago EPS, this represents a change of +23.3%. Blueprint Medicines currently boasts a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

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