National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:EYE) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets
It's been a pretty great week for National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:EYE) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$22.90 in the week since its latest full-year results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$2.1b, statutory losses exploded to US$0.84 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for National Vision Holdings
Taking into account the latest results, the ten analysts covering National Vision Holdings provided consensus estimates of US$1.99b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 6.2% decline over the past 12 months. National Vision Holdings is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.37 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.31 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the substantial gain in earnings per share expectations following these results.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 9.0% to US$23.10. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic National Vision Holdings analyst has a price target of US$28.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await National Vision Holdings shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.2% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.6% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - National Vision Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards National Vision Holdings following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that National Vision Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for National Vision Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of National Vision Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think National Vision Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
