Natural Gas Tops $3 as Traders Bet on Strengthing Demand
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. Following the positive inventory numbers, futures topped $3 to hit their highest since January. Other factors noted in last week’s spike are a hint of tightening supply and predictions of strong cooling demand.
Despite all this, the market hasn't been kind to natural gas in 2023, with the commodity trading considerably lower year to date and briefly breaking below the $2 threshold for the first time since 2020. At this time, we advise investors to focus on stocks like Chesapeake Energy CHK, Coterra Energy CTRA and Cheniere Energy LNG.
EIA Reports a Smaller-Than-Anticipated Build
Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose 86 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Sep 29, below the guidance of a 91 Bcf addition per a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The build compared with the five-year (2018-2022) average net injection of 103 Bcf and last year’s growth of 126 Bcf for the reported week.
The latest increase puts total natural gas stocks at 3,445 Bcf, which is 357 Bcf (11.6%) above the 2022 level and 172 Bcf (5.3%) higher than the five-year average.
The total supply of natural gas averaged 106 Bcf per day, essentially unchanged on a weekly basis as higher shipments from Canada were offset by a decrease in dry production.
Daily consumption also remained practically flat at 94.4 Bcf, mainly reflecting a pickup in deliveries to LNG export terminals that was counterbalanced by lower power burn.
Natural Gas Prices Finish Sharply Higher
Natural gas prices trended upward last week following the lower-than-expected inventory build. Futures for November delivery ended Friday at $3.34 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing 14% from the previous week’s closing. The jump in natural gas realization is also the result of favorable weather predictions and signs of curtailment in domestic output.
As is the norm with natural gas, changes in temperature and weather forecasts can lead to price swings. With forecasts for colder weather in the days ahead (especially in the Northeast and Midwest), usage of the commodity to generate electricity to meet heating demand is expected to be strong.
Apart from bullish weather conditions, natural gas has been pushed higher by signs of curtailment in domestic output. According to energy services provider Baker Hughes, the U.S. natural gas rig count — a pointer to where production is headed — is down more than 25% from last year. Industry observers believe this could set the stage for a pullback in near-term drilling and supplies.
Meanwhile, a stable demand catalyst in the form of continued strong LNG feedgas deliveries is supporting natural gas. While falling from their April highs, LNG shipments for export from the United States have been elevated for months due to environmental reasons and Europe’s endeavor to move away from its dependence on Russian natural gas supplies following the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, with union workers planning to resume strikes at LNG facilities in Australia, flows to export plants might be threatened thereby driving up commodity prices.
Final Thoughts
Despite last week’s healthy increase, the natural gas market is down 25% so far this year. Based on several factors, the space is currently quite unpredictable and spooked by the sudden changes in weather and production patterns. As such, investors are clueless about what to do. As of now, the lingering uncertainty over the fuel means that they should preferably opt for holding on to fundamentally strong stocks like Chesapeake Energy, Coterra Energy and Cheniere Energy.
Chesapeake Energy: Chesapeake has a premier portfolio with more than 15 years of inventory spread over some 2,200 locations, and around 90% of its total output comprises natural gas. This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s exposure to premium markets and focus on costs and margins should help it to benefit from any increase in natural gas prices.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Chesapeake beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 23.7%. Valued at around $11.6 billion, CHK has lost 10.6% in a year.
Coterra Energy: It is an independent upstream operator primarily engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas. Headquartered in Houston, TX, the firm owns some 183,000 net acres in the gas-producing Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. The Zacks Rank #3 company churned out an average 2,204 million cubic feet on a daily basis from these assets in 2022.
Coterra beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 9.5%. Valued at around $20.2 billion, CTRA has lost 5.9% in a year.
Cheniere Energy: Being the first company to receive regulatory approval to export LNG from its 2.6 billion cubic feet per day Sabine Pass terminal, Cheniere Energy certainly enjoys a distinct competitive advantage.
Cheniere Energy has a projected earnings growth rate of 493.1% for the current year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this #3 Ranked natural gas exporter’s 2023 earnings has been revised 4.3% upward over the past 60 days. LNG shares have gone down 2.7% in a year.
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