Bitcoin's price could catch a serious boost from a new ETF, according to analysts at Fundstrat.
Fundstrat's team, which previously published a year-end bitcoin price target of $100,000, now says bitcoin's equilibrium price could spike to as high as $168,000 if the ProShares exchange-traded fund (ETF) that will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Tuesday attracts a serious wave of inflows from investors.
Fundstrat is predicting the new bitcoin futures ETF will deliver higher first-year inflows than what the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 fund ETF was able to attract back in 2002 by tracking the Nasdaq 100 index.
"[T]he [new bitcoin ETF] will enable vastly more individuals to allocate to crypto," Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee wrote. "We think Bitcoin demand will exceed the inflows for QQQ."
Tune in to Yahoo Finance Live on October 19 for an interview with Fundstrat's Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell at 11 a.m. EST.
Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler has repeated signaled his openness to an ETF tied to bitcoin futures (as opposed to one contingent on spot bitcoin). Fundstrat's thesis is particularly bullish on investor enthusiasm for a fund settled in bitcoin futures.
Investors already have the option of outright buying and holding bitcoin themselves through exchanges like Coinbase and others, though Lee explained how a new ETF can bring more demand.
He cited the Invesco QQQ ETF, which offered diversification among the top tech names at a time when investors already had the ability to invest in tech stocks. It saw inflows of $36 billion in the ETF's first year.
Fundstrat is predicting the ProShares bitcoin ETF will exceed that by bringing in $50 billion in its first year, which would imply roughly $50 million additional demand for bitcoin per day. That, coupled with current supply prices for bitcoin, got Fundstrat to an equilibrium price of $168,000 per bitcoin.
Analysts will have some frame of reference to work with for what successful inflows might look like. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, The SPDR Gold Shares fund (GLD) boasts the quickest climb to $1 billion in assets under management — doing so in just three days.
Lee further asserted that the idea that bitcoin's eight-year wait for an ETF has not already been priced in.
"There are some views that the run up in [bitcoin's price] is already discounting this approval," Lee wrote. "To an extent, this is probably true, since Bitcoin has surged to near all-time highs in the past few weeks. But in our view, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise, well after actual approval of the ETF."
The ProShares bitcoin ETF is expected to begin trading on the NYSE with the ticker "BITO."