Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 27, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company recorded an earnings surprise of 10.1%.
The Trend in Estimate Revision
For the quarter to be reported, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share has remained unchanged at 13 cents in the past seven days. In the prior-year quarter, NCLH reported a loss per share of $1.04.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.99 billion. The metric suggests an increase of 31.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors at Play
Norwegian Cruise’s fourth-quarter revenues are expected to have increased year over year, propelled by strong booking trends, fleet expansion efforts and robust passenger ticket revenues. For the quarter under review, our model predicts passenger ticket and onboard and other revenues to increase on a year-over-year basis by 47% and 1.2% to $1.49 billion and $513.5 million, respectively.
Improved occupancy rates and strong pricing growth, driven by increased luxury and upper premium capacity operating with NCLH's new Regent in Oceania ships, are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. For the fourth quarter of 2023, Norwegian Cruise anticipates occupancy to be nearly 98% and Capacity Days to be about 5.9 million.
However, high costs are likely to have hurt the bottom line in the quarter to be reported. It expects adjusted loss per share to be nearly 15 cents. Per our model, total cruise operating costs in the fourth quarter are expected to rise 9.1% year over year to $1.33 billion.
Emphasis on margin enhancement initiatives, such as itinerary optimization, supply-chain initiatives and rationalization of product delivery, is expected to have partially offset the adverse effects of these headwinds. Management anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be about $360 million. The company anticipates fourth-quarter net yields to rise 7.25-8.25% (on a reported basis) and 7.75-8.75% (on a constant-currency basis) from 2019 levels.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Norwegian Cruise this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Norwegian Cruise has an Earnings ESP of -12.5%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Recent Consumer Discretionary Releases
Hyatt Hotels Corporation H delivered fourth-quarter 2023 results, wherein earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate but declined on a year-over-year basis. The company's revenues surpassed the consensus mark and increased year over year.
Hyatt’s quarterly results reflected year-over-year growth in comparable system-wide revenue per available room (RevPAR), driven by an increase in occupancy and average daily rate (ADR). This uptrend is mainly driven by strong global travel demand, especially among leisure and business guests, and group customers. However, increased costs and expenses and foreign currency risks partially offset the aforementioned tailwinds and hurt the bottom line.
Planet Fitness, Inc. PLNT reported fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Also, both metrics increased on a year-over-year basis.
However, the company has cited concerns about continued macroeconomic uncertainty and a slowing down of sales (owing to a transition towards more strength equipment over cardio). The company anticipates 2024 sales distribution to resemble that of 2023, showing a return to a standard quarterly rhythm.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. LYV reported mixed fourth-quarter 2023 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues beating the same. Revenues surpassed the consensus estimate for the seventh straight quarter.
The company has been benefiting from the pent-up demand for live events and robust ticket sales. It continues to benefit from the robust performance of Ticketmaster and an increase in fan spending. In 2023, 145 million fans attended more than 50,000 events.
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Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
