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We expect Novavax, Inc. NVAX to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2022 results on May 9, after the market closes.
NVAX’s surprise record has been dismal so far, as its earnings missed expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average negative surprise being 182.5%. In the last reported quarter, Novavax witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 681.8%.
In the year so far, shares of Novavax have plunged 62.4% compared with the industry’s 21.4% decline.
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Let’s see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors to Note
In the first quarter, Novavax received authorization for use of NVX-CoV2373, its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, in markets like Australia, Canada and Great Britain. NVAX also started shipping out deliveries of its COVID-19 vaccine doses during the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total sales in the first quarter stands at $878.1 million.
In the last reported quarter, royalties and other revenues increased significantly year over year owing to the sale of NVX-CoV2373 in Indonesia and South Korea by Novavax’s partners, a trend that most likely continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.
After much delay, Novavax finally filed for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of its COVID-19 vaccine with the FDA in January 2022. An opinion of the FDA’s Vaccines And Related Biological Products Advisory Committee on this filing is expected by next month.
Novavax is also evaluating the vaccine in adolescents aged from 12 years to 17 years. In March 2022, NVAX received the first authorization for use of its vaccine in this age group in India. During the same month, NVAX also filed regulatory applications seeking authorization for use of its COVID vaccine in adolescents in the EU and South Korea.
We also expect management to provide an update on Novavax’s pipeline.
ResVax, Novavax’s potential respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine is being evaluated in a phase III study to protect infants by immunizing their mothers against the disease.
Novavax also completed a phase III pivotal study on its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate NanoFlu for patients aged 65 years and above. The study met all the eight primary endpoints. An update on the timeline for regulatory filing of the vaccine is expected during the upcoming earnings call.
NVAX is also evaluating a COVID-19-influenza combination (CIC) vaccine candidate in a phase I/II study. The CIC vaccine is a combination of NVX-CoV2373 and NanoFlu in a single formulation. In April 2022, Novavax announced initial data from this study, which demonstrated the CIC vaccine to be feasible and immunogenic. The immune responses were comparable to the standalone NanoFlu and standalone NVX-CoV2373 formulations. NVAX expects to begin a phase II dose confirmation study by 2022 end.
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Novavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Novavax’s Earnings ESP is +10.13% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.67 per share is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.33.
Zacks Rank: Novavax currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Novavax, Inc. Price
Novavax, Inc. price | Novavax, Inc. Quote
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a few other stocks worth considering as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Angion Biomedica ANGN has an Earnings ESP of +15.71% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Angion Biomedica’s 2022 loss per share have narrowed from $2.38 to $1.79. The same for 2023 has narrowed from $2.95 to $2.19 in the same period.
Earnings of Angion Biomedica beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark on one occasion, witnessing a negative surprise of 47.5%, on average. In the last reported quarter, ANGN witnessed an earnings surprise of 198.3%.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX has an Earnings ESP of +0.87% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. VRTX is scheduled to report earnings on May 5, after the closing bell.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals’ 2022 earnings per share have increased from $14.52 to $14.56. The same for 2023 has increased from $15.31 to $15.35 in the same time frame. Shares of VRTX have rallied 19.3% in the year so far.
Earnings of Vertex Pharmaceuticals beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, of the average being 10%. In the last reported quarter, VRTX delivered an earnings surprise of 2.7%.
Adicet Bio ACET has an Earnings ESP of +218.52% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the past 30 days, estimates for Adicet Bio’s 2022 loss per share have narrowed from $1.05 to $1.03.
Earnings of Adicet Bio missed estimates in three of the last four quarters and beat the mark just once, witnessing a negative surprise of 13.3%, on average. In the last reported quarter, ACET witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 6.8%.
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