NOVONIX (ASX:NVX) shareholders have endured a 72% loss from investing in the stock a year ago
It's not a secret that every investor will make bad investments, from time to time. But serious investors should think long and hard about avoiding extreme losses. It must have been painful to be a NOVONIX Limited (ASX:NVX) shareholder over the last year, since the stock price plummeted 72% in that time. While some investors are willing to stomach this sort of loss, they are usually professionals who spread their bets thinly. Even if you look out three years, the returns are still disappointing, with the share price down35% in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 19% in the last 90 days.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for NOVONIX
Given that NOVONIX didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last twelve months, NOVONIX increased its revenue by 0.7%. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. Even so you could argue that it's surprising that the share price has tanked 72%. Clearly the market was expecting better, and this may blow out projections of profitability. If and only if this company is still likely to succeed, just a little slower, this could be a good opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
A Different Perspective
Investors in NOVONIX had a tough year, with a total loss of 72%, against a market gain of about 1.5%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 10% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for NOVONIX (2 are a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
