Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD)?
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of 74% in the past couple of months on the NASDAQGM. The company is now trading at yearly-high levels following the recent surge in its share price. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Blue Bird’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
See our latest analysis for Blue Bird
What Is Blue Bird Worth?
Blue Bird is currently expensive based on our price multiple model, where we look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. In this instance, we’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. We find that Blue Bird’s ratio of 41.8x is above its peer average of 23.14x, which suggests the stock is trading at a higher price compared to the Machinery industry. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Blue Bird’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Blue Bird generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to more than double over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Blue Bird. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in BLBD’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe BLBD should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on BLBD for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for BLBD, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For example - Blue Bird has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you are no longer interested in Blue Bird, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
