Is There An Opportunity With Phillips 66's (NYSE:PSX) 25% Undervaluation?

Key Insights

• Phillips 66's estimated fair value is US$199 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Phillips 66 is estimated to be 25% undervalued based on current share price of US$149

• Analyst price target for PSX is US$151 which is 24% below our fair value estimate

How far off is Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Phillips 66

Is Phillips 66 Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$5.89b	US$5.62b	US$5.51b	US$5.36b	US$5.62b	US$5.65b	US$5.71b	US$5.79b	US$5.89b	US$6.00b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 0.49%	Est @ 1.03%	Est @ 1.41%	Est @ 1.67%	Est @ 1.86%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2%	US$5.4k	US$4.8k	US$4.4k	US$3.9k	US$3.8k	US$3.5k	US$3.3k	US$3.1k	US$2.9k	US$2.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$38b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$6.0b× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.3%) = US$104b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$104b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)¹⁰= US$47b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$85b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$149, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 25% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Phillips 66 as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.283. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Phillips 66

Strength

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Oil and Gas market.

Opportunity

• Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Phillips 66, there are three additional factors you should explore:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Phillips 66 (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for PSX's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.