Is Pacific Smiles Group Limited's (ASX:PSQ) Recent Price Movement Underpinned By Its Weak Fundamentals?
Pacific Smiles Group (ASX:PSQ) has had a rough three months with its share price down 21%. We, however decided to study the company's financials to determine if they have got anything to do with the price decline. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. Specifically, we decided to study Pacific Smiles Group's ROE in this article.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.
Check out our latest analysis for Pacific Smiles Group
How Is ROE Calculated?
The formula for return on equity is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Pacific Smiles Group is:
4.0% = AU$2.4m ÷ AU$61m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.04 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
Pacific Smiles Group's Earnings Growth And 4.0% ROE
As you can see, Pacific Smiles Group's ROE looks pretty weak. Even when compared to the industry average of 6.9%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 33% seen by Pacific Smiles Group over the last five years is not surprising. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.
That being said, we compared Pacific Smiles Group's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 2.4% in the same 5-year period.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for PSQ? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Pacific Smiles Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Looking at its three-year median payout ratio of 29% (or a retention ratio of 71%) which is pretty normal, Pacific Smiles Group's declining earnings is rather baffling as one would expect to see a fair bit of growth when a company is retaining a good portion of its profits. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.
Additionally, Pacific Smiles Group has paid dividends over a period of nine years, which means that the company's management is rather focused on keeping up its dividend payments, regardless of the shrinking earnings. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 106% over the next three years. However, Pacific Smiles Group's future ROE is expected to rise to 18% despite the expected increase in the company's payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.
Summary
In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Pacific Smiles Group's performance. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
